Sia Partners & Predict4Resilience: Improving Electricity Network Fault Predictions

Predict4Resilience (P4R) has secured funding from the Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF) run by energy regulator Ofgem in conjunction with UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). The fund is designed to support ambitious and innovative projects to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions.

Severe and extreme weather events can have a major impact on the electricity network, resulting in widespread, extended network outages. These cause significant inconvenience to individuals and businesses increasingly dependable on their power supply, and renewable generators who need a reliable connection to the network.

P4R will provide accurate fault insights and forecasts for its users during adverse weather events. It utilises probabilistic fault prediction and related decision-support for the first time in a GB innovation project, transforming human-centric decision-making and leading to an improved response to faults on the electricity network.

By utilising hourly data from state-of-the-art weather forecasts and overlaying this onto historic network fault data, LIDAR data and land cover data, P4R will provide Control Room operatives short-term predictions regarding the expected level of faults across the licence area, up to 7 days in advance. Through this advanced indication of where inclement weather will affect the network and a prediction of expected fault numbers, P4R will enable staff to be proactively placed in those areas most likely to be impacted, thus enabling power supply to be restored sooner than is currently possible.

Sia Partners was a critical partner in the Alpha Phase, bringing experience in designing and developing scalable solutions. Sia Partners implemented the prototype fault forecasting model and accompanying data infrastructure, verifying the feasibility of the P4R's innovations. In the upcoming Beta Phase, Sia Partners are primarily responsible for the implementation of the innovation, leading the technical development of the solution and analysing the best commercialisation pathway for the tool.

Sebastien Gerber, Head of Data Science and AI for UK & Ireland:

“Sia Partners will continue its work from the previous phase of the project where it led the development of the solution prototype and built the supporting business case to secure further funding from Ofgem.

Sia Partners’ multidisciplinary team brings expertise in energy networks operations, data science, machine learning, DevOps & Infra data engineering and UX / UI design to provide the end-to-end capability to deliver a software solution fit for all DNOs, as well as any adjacent sectors who suffer weather-related interruptions.

Sia Partners is proud to play an integral role in Predict4Resilience and help create a more resilient network that minimises disruption and stress for customers, particularly the vulnerable. We anticipate Predict4Resilience will bring about a range of significant financial, social and environmental benefits to the networks and their customers.”